Second vote to question South Korea’s Yoon ‘much more likely’ to succeed, say analysts | USAEMALL.com

WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF YOON IS IMPEACHED?

If Saturday’s impeachment vote succeeds and the matter heads to the Constitutional Court. Friedhoff said he does not expect a verdict for three or four months.

He also flagged concerns over whether the matter can be heard at all. There are currently six sitting justices, but seven are required to pass judgment.

“If they do opt to remove him and say that his impeachment is constitutional and he is officially removed from power, then we would see an election within 60 days,” Friedhoff added.

“If you’re looking out for when that election might take place, the most likely time is looking like May or June.”

Richey said it remains unclear how the Constitutional Court will reach its seven-judge quorum, and if so, whether they would uphold the impeachment.

The analyst noted that Yoon on Thursday seemed to lay out his likely defence in the Constitutional Court process – essentially, that he is the president and gets to decide what is a national emergency, as well as whether martial law should be imposed.

“He argues that he followed the constitutional process of doing so, and so, with a court that does have conservative justices sitting on it, it’s not a guarantee, I think, at this point, that he would in fact be convicted,” cautioned Richey.

“That is ultimately necessary to remove him from office, because without the conviction from the Constitutional Court, he is reinstated as president.”