The Army–Navy game occupies a special, yet peculiar position on the college football calendar.
Its significance is undeniable, given the history, ferocity and pageantry of the rivalry. It stands alone — literally — as the only game on the Saturday after conference championship weekend in December. Yet the stakes of the game typically haven’t mattered in terms of rankings or the national championship race.
This year, it’s complicated.
The service academies are both undefeated and ranked. And the 12-team College Football Playoff means that the No. 23 Black Knights (7-0) and No. 24 Midshipmen (6-0) are bona fide Playoff contenders — if one of them can win the American Athletic Conference.
But the Playoff field will be set on Dec. 8 — six days before the annual Army-Navy game kicks off in Landover, Md. And because Army and Navy are now conference-mates in the AAC, the Dec. 14 matchup could be the second meeting between the teams in one season.
Here’s a look at how things could shake out.
How did we get here?
Army QB Bryson Daily leads all FBS players with 19 rushing touchdowns. (Lucas Boland / Imagn Images)
It’s the first time since 1926 that Army and Navy both have started a season 6-0.
The Black Knights are 7-0 and have yet to trail in a game. Naturally, they lead the nation in rushing offense, led by quarterback Bryson Daily, who has accounted for 26 total touchdowns. Army is already 6-0 in AAC play, meaning it has just two conference games left (at North Texas, UTSA).
The Midshipmen are 6-0 heading into a massive game against No. 12 Notre Dame at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J., and 4-0 in the AAC. It’s already their best season since 2019 when they won 11 games.
Army and Navy currently occupy the top two spots in the AAC standings.
So … does that mean they could play twice?
Yes — and in back-to-back weeks. They could face off in the conference championship game on Dec. 6 and meet again for their annual rivalry on Dec. 14.
But Tulane is right behind them with a 3-0 conference record and plays Navy on Nov. 16. A loss could derail Navy’s shot at punching its ticket to the conference championship and thus crush the Mids’ Playoff hopes.
Will the Army-Navy game count toward the CFP?
A potential meeting in the AAC championship would. But the annual, neutral-site game will not.
Selection Day for the Playoff is Sunday, Dec. 8, and the annual Army-Navy game is the following Saturday. In the four-team Playoff era, the selection committee had a protocol that allowed it to wait for Army-Navy if it had implications on the field. But because the 12-team Playoff begins the weekend of Dec. 20-21, it could not wait on the outcome this time around.
This means there is a scenario in which one service academy wins the AAC and a berth into the CFP, then loses its final regular-season game to the same opponent it beat out to advance to the Playoff.
There will still be bragging rights on the line, of course.
Would Army or Navy have less time to prepare for a Playoff game?
Given that no other teams play a game the week of Dec. 14, if either service academy earns a spot in the Playoff it would have less time to prepare for its postseason opponent.
What are the chances Army or Navy makes the Playoff?
There is a 29.6 percent chance that Army or Navy makes the Playoff, but the individual percentages for both teams depending on the results of their next games look a little different.
If Navy beats Notre Dame on Saturday, the Midshipmen’s odds to make the Playoff rise to 10 percent, according to the projection model by The Athletic’s Austin Mock. With a loss, that drops to 5 percent.
Army faces an easier opponent in Air Force, so the Cadets’ percentages are higher: 30 percent with a win and 14 percent with a loss. Army also has to play Notre Dame on Nov. 23, at Yankee Stadium.
Mock’s model gives Army a 63 percent chance to win the AAC, while Navy is at 15 percent.
GO DEEPER
What do Army and Navy’s historic starts mean for AAC championship? CFP?
What else needs to happen for either team to make the Playoff?
Two things need to happen. First, the obvious one, is for Army or Navy to keep winning and win the AAC. It’s unlikely either can make the Playoff as an at-large team.
Second, they likely need the Mountain West to beat up on each other. Boise State (5-1) is currently ranked ahead of Army and Navy, and the Broncos’ only blemish is a road loss at Oregon.
The other team to worry about from the Mountain West is UNLV (6-1). Boise State plays at UNLV on Friday, which will have a significant impact on the Group of 5 Playoff bid.
If you want a rooting guide to get Army or Navy into the CFP, I’d probably root for UNLV to pull the upset this weekend and then continue to root for those two teams to lose down the stretch. — Austin Mock
Has Army or Navy ever won a national championship?
Led by 1946 Heisman Trophy winner Glenn Davis, Army claimed national titles in 1944, 1945 and 1946. (Bettmann via Getty Images)
Yes, but the specifics are a bit complicated, because college football hasn’t always held a national championship game.
Army claims five national championships (1914, 1916, 1944, 1945, 1946), though multiple programs claim titles for four of those years. Similarly, Navy claims a share of the 1926 national title.
The last time either team cracked the AP top 10 was in 1964, when Navy peaked at No. 6.
What’s next?
Army finishes the regular season with Air Force (1-6), North Texas (5-2), Notre Dame (6-1), UTSA (3-4) and Navy.
Navy finishes with Notre Dame, Rice (2-5), South Florida (3-4), Tulane (5-2), East Carolina (3-4) and Army.
(Top photo: Barry Chin / The Boston Globe via Getty Images)
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5871187/2024/10/25/army-navy-college-football-playoff-chances/
