Lara Jakes
Lara Jakes covers global conflicts and diplomacy.
Since seizing power four years ago, the military junta that controls Myanmar has gradually become so weakened that some analysts have predicted it could soon collapse, in a scenario similar to the rebel overthrow of Syria’s government in December.
With the financial and military backing of benefactors — including China, India, Russia and Thailand — the junta has managed to maintain its grip. It controls about 20 percent of the territory, mainly urban areas, amid a civil war that had left nearly 20 million people without sufficient food, shelter or security even before Friday’s earthquake, according to a report this week by the United Nations humanitarian aid agency.
Myanmar’s bleak economy has stirred widespread anger against the junta, which has grappled with high levels of defections. Its leader, Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, has been accused of crimes against humanity by the International Criminal Court.
General Min Aung Hlaing has kept up persecution of ethnic minorities, including this month arresting the leader of an armed group that has sought to protect Rohingya Muslims from a scorched-earth campaign of arson, mass rape and killing that the United States has called genocide.
The Trump administration so far has taken a largely hands-off approach to Myanmar, although in January it joined an alliance of democratic countries condemning the junta and urging it to de-escalate violence. The move aims to contain Myanmar’s instability and prevent another surge of people fleeing the country, after about one million Rohingya have already escaped to refugee camps in neighboring Bangladesh.
But India, Russia and China all have provided weapons to the junta, and Thailand has given it financial support and defended it against international condemnation, according to an analysis by the Council on Foreign Relations.
China, which has sold jets, drones, artillery and electromagnetic jammers to help the junta battle rebels, sees the military-led government as the only force that can hold Myanmar together. But Beijing has hesitated to fully endorse the February 2021 coup and appears to be looking for what the Stimson Center, a foreign policy research group, described this month as an “off-ramp” for the junta.
Last year, China pledged $3 billion in assistance to the junta, in part to finance a census and some semblance of elections. But the Stimson Center’s report said that “Beijing seems unconvinced that a transition to a federal democratic system is possible.”
General Min Aung Hlaing’s recent moves indicate that he is trying at least to be seen as responsive to international pressure. On Thursday, he announced that Myanmar would hold “dignified” elections in December. He is reportedly planning to visit Thailand next week for meetings with regional leaders, a rare visit abroad for what his spokesman described as discussions with “potential for peace.”
On Friday, with reports of extensive damage from the quake still coming in, a military spokesman appealed for international aid and said it would cooperate with foreign donors, an unusual step for a junta that has not asked for assistance in past disasters. The announcement suggested that the authorities expect the death toll to be high.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/03/28/world/myanmar-earthquake
