It was the announcement Senate Democrats have been dreading.
When it got here, it appeared to strike a serious blow to their hopes of holding their razor-thin Senate majority within the 2024 elections.
“I have made one of the toughest decisions of my life and decided that I will not be running for re-election to the United States Senate,” Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia introduced earlier this month.
Manchin, a reasonable Democrat and former governor, received over 60% of the vote in his 2012 re-election, however his margin of victory fell to only three factors in 2018.
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The consensus was that Manchin was the one Democrat who may win in West Virginia subsequent 12 months after his state shifted dramatically to the best over the previous decade. Former President Donald Trump carried West Virginia by practically 40 factors within the 2020 election.
Democrats management the U.S. Senate with a 51-49 majority, however Republicans are taking a look at a positive Senate map in 2024, with Democrats defending 23 of the 34 seats up for grabs. Three of these seats are in crimson states that Trump carried in 2020 — West Virginia, Montana and Ohio.
Five different blue-held seats are in key swing states narrowly carried by President Biden in 2020 — Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
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“Democrats have multiple pathways to protect and strengthen our Senate majority and are in a strong position to achieve this goal,” Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesman David Bergstein argued in an announcement after Manchin’s announcement.
“In addition to defending our battle-tested incumbents, we’ve already expanded the battleground map to Texas and Florida,” Berstein added, pointing to what he known as “unpopular Republican incumbents.”
Texas and Florida, the place incumbent senators Ted Cruz and Rick Scott are looking for re-election, seem like the one doubtlessly aggressive GOP-held seats up for grabs subsequent 12 months.
Here’s a take a look at the 5 seats most probably to flip in 2024.
With Manchin not looking for re-election, National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) chairman Sen. Steve Daines stated, “We like our odds in West Virginia.”
Right now, the principle motion is within the Republican Senate main, the place widespread Democrat-turned-Republican Gov. Jim Justice has the backing of the NRSC and Trump.
Justice has rasied extra money than his predominant rival, conservative Rep. Alex Mooney, who enjoys the help of the fiscally conservative Club for Growth.
The first Democrat to leap into the race following Manchin’s departure is 32-year-old Zachary Shrewsbury, a local West Virginian and Marine Corps veteran.
Democrats breathed a sigh of reduction when Sen. Jon Tester of Montana introduced earlier this 12 months that he would search re-election in 2024 in a state that Trump carried by 16 factors three years in the past. The Democratic incumbent has hauled in a formidable $15 million in fundraising to date this 12 months.
Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL and Purple Heart recipient who notched greater than 200 missions within the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and elsewhere across the globe, launched a Republican Senate bid in late June.
Sheehy, the CEO of Bridger Aerospace, a Montana-based aerial firefighting and wildfire surveillance companies firm, enjoys the NRSC’s backing.
Rep. Matt Rosendale, a hard-right congressman, is significantly mulling a bid. Rosendale narrowly misplaced to Tester within the 2018 Senate election.
Longtime Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is the one member of his social gathering to win a non-judicial, statewide election in Ohio previously decade. As Brown runs in 2024 for a fourth six-year time period representing Ohio, he will probably be closely focused by Republicans in a state that was as soon as a premier normal election battleground however has shifted crimson over the previous six years.
Trump carried Ohio by eight factors in his 2016 presidential election victory and his 2020 re-election defeat. Last 12 months, Trump’s handpicked Senate candidate in Ohio — Sen. JD Vance — topped longtime Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan by six factors regardless of Ryan operating what political specialists thought of a virtually flawless marketing campaign.
Brown, who has served as a congressman, state lawmaker and Ohio secretary of state throughout his practically half century profession in elective politics, is well-known throughout the Buckeye State. The senator, generally known as a champion for populist causes, raked in $3.6 million in contributions through the first three months of this 12 months.
Two Republicans who ran unsuccessfully for the 2022 GOP Senate nomination in Ohio are already within the race to oust Brown.
State Sen. Matt Dolan, a former high county prosecutor and Ohio assistant lawyer normal, launched his marketing campaign in January. Dolan, whose household owns Major League Baseball’s Cleveland Guardians, shelled out thousands and thousands of his personal cash to run advertisements for his 2022 Senate bid.
He surged close to the tip of the first race, ending third in a crowded subject of Republican contenders, successful practically 1 / 4 of the vote.
In April, Bernie Moreno, a profitable Cleveland-based businessman and luxurious auto dealership big, declared his candidacy. Moreno, an immigrant who arrived within the U.S. legally from Colombia along with his household as a 5-year-old boy, additionally shelled out thousands and thousands of his personal cash to run TV commercials to try to enhance his first Senate bid.
But he suspended his marketing campaign in February 2022 after requesting and holding a non-public assembly with Trump.
In July, Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose joined the race, launching a much-anticipated Senate marketing campaign.
With Democrat-turned-independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema showing to gear up for a re-election marketing campaign — despite the fact that she hasn’t formally introduced a marketing campaign — the Senate race in battleground Arizona might be probably the most difficult of the 2024 cycle.
Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego is already operating on the left and has raised extra money than Sinema, though the incumbent enjoys a wholesome cash-on-hand benefit.
Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb just lately grew to become the primary main GOP contender to launch a marketing campaign.
But 2022 GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake immediately grew to become the Republican front-runner when she jumped into the race in October. Lake, a former TV information anchor and robust Trump ally, narrowly misplaced final 12 months’s election for governor however refused to concede.
The Keystone State, which is a perennial normal election battleground, will doubtless dwell as much as its status as soon as once more in 2024 because it holds what’s going to arguably be one of the vital aggressive and costly Senate races throughout the nation.
Democratic Sen. Bob Casey, who served a decade because the state’s auditor normal after which treasurer earlier than first successful election to the Senate in 2006, is looking for a fourth six-year time period in workplace.
Casey, who’s not anticipated to face any critical Democratic main problem, is the son of a preferred former governor.
Republicans seem largely united behind Dave McCormick, who’s making his second straight Senate run.
McCormick, a former hedge fund government, West Point graduate, Gulf War fight veteran and Treasury Department official in former President George W. Bush’s administration, was endorsed by the Pennsylvania GOP in late September, quickly after he entered the race.
McCormick had been courted by nationwide and state Republicans to run, and his candidacy offers the GOP a high-profile candidate with the flexibility to finance his personal race that is anticipated to be one of the vital costly within the nation.
The Pennsylvania GOP’s endorsement will doubtless assist McCormick keep away from a crowded and flamable battle for the 2024 GOP Senate nomination just like the one he confronted final 12 months. McCormick ended up dropping the nomination by a razor-thin margin to superstar physician and cardiac surgeon Mehmet Oz, who secured a main victory due to a late endorsement from Trump. Oz ended up dropping the final election final November to Democrat John Fetterman.
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